Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 222205

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jan 22 2019

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2115 UTC.

...Special features...

...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec... 

A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Wed 
morning and reach The Isthmus of Tehuantepec Wed evening. 
Northerly winds behind the front will rapidly funnel across The 
Isthmus of Tehuantepec, thus leading to a gap wind event in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec reaching gale force near 0300 UTC on Thu. 
Initial seas will be 9 ft, but will rapidly build to 16 ft as 
the winds increases to 40 kt through Thu afternoon. Minimal gale 
force winds of 35 kt will then prevail in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through Sat morning. By Sat night winds and seas 
will be below advisory criteria. Please read the latest High 
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under 
AWIPS/WMO headers fzpn03 knhc/hsfep2 for further details. 

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

The equatorial surface trough passes through the coast of 
Colombia near 06n77w to 05n84w to 05n91w. The ITCZ continues 
from 05n92w to 03n110w to 05n123w then resumes from 04n129w to 
04n140w. Scattered moderate convection is from 04n to 07n 
between 95w and 102w, and between 108w and 118w.


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico... 

The surface pressure gradient, between a broad ridge anchored NW 
of the area and a low pressure system along Oklahoma, Texas and 
northern Mexico is supporting fresh N to NE winds across the 
offshores waters of Baja California. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW 
swell reach to los inocentes in Baja California sur and the 
wates to the west N of 22n. High pressure N of the area will 
strengthen Tue night, thus allowing fresh to strong winds along 
the Gulf of California funnel through the mountain passages of 
central and southern baja. Winds and seas associated with these 
gap winds will subside Wed night. 

Gulf of california: strong high pressure building N of the Gulf 
will continue to support strong NW winds across almost the 
entire Gulf of California through early Fri. The strength, fetch 
and duration of the winds will support wave heights ranging from 
8 feet to 9 feet in parts of the Gulf tonight.

Gulf of tehuantepec: return flow has established across the Gulf 
of Mexico, thus allowing for the termination of The Gap wind 
event. Latest scatterometer data show moderate to locally fresh 
N to NE winds in the Gulf with seas in the 6-7 ft range. 
However, a new strong cold front will move into the Gulf of 
Mexico on Wed, thus leading to another gap wind event in 
Tehuantepec. See the special features section for further 

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador... 

High pressure NE of the area will support strong gap winds 
through the Gulf of papagayo, and to a lesser extent, the Gulf 
of Panama into the weekend.

Remainder of the area...  

A broad surface ridge dominates the eastern Pacific Ocean north 
of 15n and west of 110w. The surface pressure gradient, between 
the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ, will 
support fresh to strong trade winds north of the ITCZ, and 
mainly west of 125w. A surface trough may develop and deepen 
along 130w by mid-week. The GFS global model is most aggressive 
for a deeper trough and higher winds. Other models show trough 
development, but lighter winds associated with the trough.



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