Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 201603

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1431 UTC Tue Feb 20 2018

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1445 UTC.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

A surface trough extends from 07n76w to 05n81w to 06n93w to 
05n99w. The ITCZ continues from 05n99w to 03n108w to 09n127w to 
beyond 07n140w. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is present from 06n to 10n between 129w and 137w. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed within 60 nm either side of a 
line from 06n86w to 02n92w.


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...

As of 1200 UTC, a cold front is passing over the southern Gulf 
of California from 28n110.5w to 25.5n111w. Gale force NW winds 
over the northern Gulf of California have subsided. The active 
portion of the front will move E of the area today, with marine 
conditions continuing to improve. Strengthening high pressure in 
the wake of the front will generate fresh to strong NW winds 
spreading se across the waters W of the baja norte through 
tonight, accompanied by NW swell causing seas to build to between
8 and 12 ft. This area of 8-ft seas will continue to spread 
across the offshore waters W of baja through Wed with seas 
measuring 8-10 ft. The area of 8 ft seas will reach as far se as 
the revillagigedo islands by Wed night. Strong high pressure 
building to the N of the discussion area will generate a large 
area of fresh to strong winds from 12n to 23n W of 115w Wed night
through Fri. This will maintain an area of corresponding seas 
running between 8 and 12 ft.

Gulf of tehuantepec: mainly light and variable winds are expected
over the next couple of days, with seas generally under 4 ft.
Northerly winds will briefly increase to 20-25 kt Thu night into
Fri, with seas building to 8 ft. 

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador... 

Gulf of papagayo: strong NE winds will continue to pulse through 
and downstream of the Gulf of papagayo to about 90w through the 
forecast period, with seas building to 9 ft during the overnight 
and early morning hours.

Gulf of panama: moderate to fresh N winds are generally expected
across the western Gulf of Panama through Sat.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
09n while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 09n. 

Remainder of the area... 

Strong high pressure of 1036 mb centered well N of the area near
37n140w ridges se across the forecast waters to near the 
revillagigedo islands. This system will be reinforced by stronger
1042 mb high pres arriving near 45n145w by Thu evening. The 
pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ will result in fresh to strong trade 
winds across the tropical waters W of 115w.

Long period NW swell dominates waters roughly to the N of 12n and W
of 110w, while cross equatorial SW swell is affecting the 
remainder of the forecast area, reaching the coast of Mexico S of
Cabo Corrientes, and the coast of Central America. Seas of 8 ft 
or greater will envelop the waters N of 08n W of 110w by Thu



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