Tropical Weather Discussion

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axpz20 knhc 190854
twdep 

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
619 UTC sun Aug 19 2018

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0815 UTC. 

...Special feature...

Hurricane Lane centered near 12.9n 142.3w at 0900 UTC, moving W 
at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Maximum 
sustained winds are 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 10n to 15n W
of 138w. Lane will continue moving farther away from the 
forecast waters into the central Pacific basin. See latest cphc 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers hfotcpcp2/wtpa32 phfo 
for more details.

...Tropical waves...

A tropical wave extends from 08n82w to 20n83w, moving W around 
10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen
from 03n to 10n E of 86w.

A tropical wave extends from 06n107w to 17n107w, moving W around
5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from 06n to 08n between 100w and 110w and from 18n to 22n 
between 104w and 107w.

A tropical wave extends from 07n124w to 17n122w, moving W around
10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
present from 10n to 17n between 120w and 124w.

   
...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08n76w to 09n88w to 08n103w to
08n110w to low pres 1009 mb near 12n118w to 10n122w. The ITCZ
resumes from 10n125w to 09n131w to 11n137w. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 05n to 14n between 
93w and 97w and from 12n to 17n between 115w and 120w. 

...Discussion...

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico... 

Surface ridging enters the forecast waters near 32n133w and 
extends se to near the revillagigedo islands. This feature will 
support gentle to moderate NW winds through Tue. Low pres will
erode the N side of the ridge during the middle of next week and
allow winds to decrease to light to gentle.

Surface troughing over the Baja Peninsula will maintain a light
wind regime over the Gulf of California through the middle of 
this week.

Strong N to NE gap winds will start over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
Tue night, then wind down Thu night.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

The monsoon trough will hover near 09n during the next few days.
Winds on both sides of the trough axis will generally be light 
to moderate. The only exception is over the Gulf of papagayo, 
where winds will pulse to between moderate and fresh each night.

Remainder of the area...   

Please see the special features section for information on 
Hurricane Lane.

Otherwise, the pressure gradient between ridging across the 
northern waters and the ITCZ will support gentle to moderate 
trades and 4-7 ft seas in mixed swell N of the ITCZ and W of 120w
through the middle of this week.

Sea heights will be relatively low for most of the forecast area
this week. Long period swell could arrive from the southern 
hemisphere toward the end of this week and cause seas near the 
Equator to begin building on Sat.

  
$$
Cam


		
		

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