Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abpw10 pgtw 222130
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
South Pacific oceans reissued/222130z-230600zjan2019//
rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (remnants 01w) previously located 
near 11.9n 125.4e, has dissipated and is no longer suspect for the 
development of a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection (invest 95p) has persisted near 
12.3s 142.0e, approximately 25.5 nm north of weipa, Australia. 
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a 221953z ssmis 
91ghz microwave image depict broad turning and formative convective 
banding wrapping into a broad low level circulation center (LLCC), 
though there is little deep convection over the LLCC itself. Upper 
level analysis depicts low (5-15 kts) vertical wind shear and 
moderate poleward outflow. Sea surface temperatures are favorable 
(30-32c) in the surrounding area for future development. Global 
models remain in general agreement, showing the system tracking 
southward on either side of Cape York, Australia, developing in 
several days, then moving over land shortly after. Maximum sustained 
surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots. Minimum sea level 
pressure is estimated to be near 1003 mb. The potential for the 
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 
hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
3. Justification for reissue: area in para 1.B.(1) has dissipated. 
Added area in para 2.B.(1) as low.//
Nnnn

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