Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abpw10 pgtw 261400
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans reissued/261400z-270600zjul2017//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/260751zjul2017//
ref/b/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/260153zjul2017//
ref/c/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/260754zjul2017//
narr/refs a, b and c are tropical cyclone warnings.//
Rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 260600z, typhoon 07w (Noru) was located near 29.0n 
156.9e, approximately 327 nm north-northeast of minami tori shima, 
and had tracked northwestward at 13 knots over the past six hours. 
Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 80 knots gusting 
to 100 knots. See ref a (wtpn31 pgtw 260900) for further details.
      (2) at 260000z, tropical depression 09w (kulap) was located 
near 31.7n 151.1e, approximately 475 nm north-northwest of minami 
tori shima, and had tracked west- southwestward at 11 knots over 
the past six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated 
at 25 knots gusting to 35 knots. See ref a (wtpn33 pgtw 260300) for 
the final warning on this system.
      (3) at 260600z, tropical storm 11w (Nesat) was located near 
16.2n 128.2e, approximately 427 nm east- northeast of Manila, 
Philippines, and had tracked northward at 04 knots over the past 
six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 45 
knots gusting to 55 knots. See ref a (wtpn34 pgtw 260900) for 
further details.
      (4) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection (invest 93w) has persisted near 
23.6n 173.8e, approximately 478 nm northeast of Wake Island. 
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a subtropical 
system with flaring convection to the east of the disturbance. The 
system is accessed as subtropical due to the unique nature of an 
upper level trough sitting above the system with a low pressure 
system located to the northeast. Currently, dry air is wrapping into 
the west side of a broad, elongated, and exposed low-level 
circulation center (LLCC). A 261007z ascat metop-a pass shows an 
elongated low level circulation center (LLCC) with a patch of 35-40 
knot wind barbs depicted 85 nm southeast of the LLCC. The 
disturbance is currently located in a high-shear environment, being 
sheared to the east. At this time, the disturbance has good outflow 
and warm sea surface temperatures (28-29c). Global models are in 
agreement that the disturbance will track north, south of a 
subtropical ridge over the next several days and slowly weaken. The 
system is not expected to transition into a tropical cyclone. 
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 35 to 40 knots. 
Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb. The 
potential for the development of 
a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: upgraded are in para 1.B.(1) to a 
low.//
Nnnn

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