Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abio10 pgtw 221800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
Ocean/221800z-231800zjan2019//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/211951zjan2019//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone final warning.//
Rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 211800z, tropical cyclone 10s (desmond) was located near
19.0s 36.4e, approximately 287 nm northwest of Europa island, and had
tracked west-northwestward at 10 knots over the past six hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 35 knots gusting to
45 knots. See ref a (wtxs31 pgtw 212100) for the final warning on
this system.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 93s) previously located near
18.6s 42.6e, is now located near 20.3s 42.5e, approximately 120 nm
east of Europa island. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery
and a 221604z ssmis 91ghz microwave image show a slightly elongated
low level circulation with persisting convection primarily to the
western portion. A 220602z partial ascat pass shows the western half
of the elongated low level circulation with primarily 10-20 knot
winds wrapping into the center. The disturbance is currently located
in an area of excellent poleward and equatorward outflow, low to
moderate vertical wind shear (10-20 knots), and warm sea surface
temperatures (26-28 celsius). Global models are in increasing
agreement that the system will begin tracking to the south, while
intensifying, and round the southern tip of Madagascar before taking
an eastward track. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at
20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near
1002 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical
cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.
      (2) the area of convection (invest 94s) previously located near
11.1s 127.0e, is now located near 11.4s 126.6e, approximately 470 nm
north-northeast of Broome, Australia. Animated enhanced infrared
satellite imagery and a 221327z mhs 89ghz microwave image show an
elongated circulation with flaring convection located primarily to
the west. A 221327z ascat partial pass shows a slightly elongated
circulation with 10-25 knot winds. The disturbance is currently
located in an area of good poleward upper level outflow, low vertical
wind shear (5-15 knots), and warm sea surface temperatures (28-30
knots). Global models indicate a west or west-southwest track over
the next several days and show intensification to warning status.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1007 mb. The
potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.
      (3) no other suspect areas.//
Nnnn

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