U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 180452 
Storm Prediction Center ac 180452 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1152 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018 

Valid 191200z - 201200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

a couple weak thunderstorms are possible Friday night across parts 
of Mississippi and Alabama, and during the day over central Texas 
and parts of Florida. 

A shortwave trough will move eastward across the Midwest and phase 
with a large-scale upper trough developing over the Great Lakes 
providing substantial cooling aloft. Northwesterly flow at all 
levels will then spread southeastward across central parts of the 
conus, bringing a reinforcement of dry air. While a weak surface 
trough will precede the upper trough amplification, little if any 
convective instability will be present to support thunderstorms as 
the front approached the Appalachians. The exception may be across 
northern MS and Alabama toward Saturday morning, where the tail end of 
the front will interact with a late northward advection of 60s f 
dewpoints and minimal instability. 

Elsewhere, weak warm advection above the stable boundary layer may 
yield weak elevated instability over parts of central Texas where 
showers will persist, while daytime heating and a moist air mass 
support a few deepening convective showers over Florida. 

..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: <2% - none 
wind: <5% - none 
hail: <5% - none 

.Jewell.. 10/18/2018