U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 201728 
Storm Prediction Center ac 201727 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018 

Valid 211200z - 221200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from central Texas 
to southwestern la... 

Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions 
of Texas into western Louisiana Saturday. 

..central Texas into western la... 
A mid- to upper-level low and associated trough will move southeast 
from the central and southern High Plains to The Ark-la-tex region 
by daybreak Sunday. An Arctic front over the southern High Plains 
will overtake a Pacific cold front during the day across 
north-central Texas and the consolidated boundary will progress 
southeast to western la and the shelf waters of the Upper Texas coast. 
Widespread clouds and rain are forecast through the early part of 
the day to the north of I-20 in north-central and northeast Texas. 
There is considerable uncertainty to the degree of destabilization 
that may occur in wake of early-day rain. Some model guidance shows 
very little destabilization whereas the 12z run of the GFS is by far 
the most aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer across 
north-central Texas. With those instability concerns mentioned, it 
appears the north extent of 60-65 dewpoints will advect into 
east-central Texas by afternoon and only weak instability will develop. 
A couple of stronger storms are possible with an isolated hail/wind 
risk. This activity will grow upscale along the front and push into 
east and southeast Texas after dark. A lingering threat for a damaging 
gust may remain into parts of southeast Texas and southwest la 
overnight Saturday night. 

.Smith.. 04/20/2018