- Day Three
acus02 kwns 180452
Storm Prediction Center ac 180452
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018
Valid 191200z - 201200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
a couple weak thunderstorms are possible Friday night across parts
of Mississippi and Alabama, and during the day over central Texas
and parts of Florida.
A shortwave trough will move eastward across the Midwest and phase
with a large-scale upper trough developing over the Great Lakes
providing substantial cooling aloft. Northwesterly flow at all
levels will then spread southeastward across central parts of the
conus, bringing a reinforcement of dry air. While a weak surface
trough will precede the upper trough amplification, little if any
convective instability will be present to support thunderstorms as
the front approached the Appalachians. The exception may be across
northern MS and Alabama toward Saturday morning, where the tail end of
the front will interact with a late northward advection of 60s f
dewpoints and minimal instability.
Elsewhere, weak warm advection above the stable boundary layer may
yield weak elevated instability over parts of central Texas where
showers will persist, while daytime heating and a moist air mass
support a few deepening convective showers over Florida.
..maximum risk by hazard...
Tornado: <2% - none
wind: <5% - none
hail: <5% - none