U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus01 kwns 251627 
Storm Prediction Center ac 251626 

Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1126 am CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 

Valid 251630z - 261200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of 
southeast nm and southwest Texas... 

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over a small part of 
southeast nm and southwest Texas this afternoon and evening. 

..se nm/SW Texas... 
Latest visible satellite loop shows clearing skies across parts of 
southeast nm and southwest TX, in the wake of early morning 
convection. Trends suggest that several hours of 
heating/destabilization will occur in this region, leading to 
afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 j/kg. Forecast soundings in 
this region indicate weak low-level winds, but rather strong winds 
above 500mb, providing favorable deep-layer shear for 
organized/rotating updrafts. Lapse rates are rather steep as well, 
suggesting that hail will be a risk with any persistent storm. The 
main forecast problem involves weak forcing and uncertainty 
regarding thunderstorm coverage. Have opted to include a marginal risk 
area in this update, given the favorable heating and consensus of 
12z cam solutions that an isolated storm or two are likely to form 
off the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains. 

.Hart/picca.. 09/25/2017 


Mesoscale Discussion

acus11 kwns 250614 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 250614 

Mesoscale discussion 1671 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0114 am CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 

Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into parts of western Texas 

Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 

Valid 250614z - 250845z 

Probability of watch issuance...5 percent 

Summary...a few storms may produce marginally severe hail through 
the early morning hours. 

Discussion...a few strong storms have formed near and south of a 
cold front, near an instability axis and aided by a 30 kt southerly 
low-level jet. Height tendencies aloft will remain little changed in 
the near term, but sufficient low-level convergence and an uncapped 
moist air mass should maintain a threat of scattered storms into 
Monday morning. Hodographs are not particularly favorable for any 
long-lived storms, with relatively weak midlevel winds. But 
instability appears strong enough for a few strong cores capable of 
some hail. 

.Jewell/grams.. 09/25/2017 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Latitude...Lon 33830509 36170420 36750342 36680276 36220219 34140238 
32630284 31900336 31700423 31800502 32410544 32790547