U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus03 kwns 200715 
Storm Prediction Center ac 200714 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0214 am CDT Fri Apr 20 2018 

Valid 221200z - 231200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from southern 
Alabama/southeast la eastward through the Florida Panhandle... 

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the 
southeast states and Florida Panhandle. 

An upper low will continue eastward through the lower MS valley and 
into the southeast states on Sunday. A weak surface low will move 
eastward/southeastward just ahead of this upper low, likely tracking 
generally southeastward along a warm front. By 12z Monday, this 
surface low is expected to be centered over southeast al, with a 
cold front extending southward into the Gulf of Mexico and a warm 
front extending southeastward into the Florida Big Bend. 

..eastern la into Florida Panhandle/Big Bend... 
Modest destabilization is anticipated within the warm sector ahead 
of the surface low. More robust destabilization will be tempered by 
widespread cloudiness but continued moisture advection will likely 
result in dewpoints in the low to mid 60s and MLCAPE around 500 
j/kg. The position of the warm front has varied within the guidance 
over the last few runs and the current expectation is for the front 
to extend from near mei southeastward to near aaf at 21z Sunday. 
Despite modest instability, strong shear supports the potential for 
a few organized storms along and south of the warm front during the 
afternoon. A more developed convective line is possible over the 
north-central Gulf as the cold front moves through the area. This 
line could impact the Florida Big Bend very late in the period. Marginal 
severe probability (i.E. 5%) has been introduced across these areas. 
Uncertainty and generally modest severe potential preclude higher 
probabilities with this outlook. 

.Mosier.. 04/20/2018