U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 180505 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1205 am CDT Thu Oct 18 2018 

Valid 201200z - 211200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday evening from northwest 
Arizona into southern Nevada and Utah, along the northern Gulf 
Coast, and in the vicinity of lakes Erie and Ontario. 

A strongly cyclonic 100-140 kt mid to upper level jet will dive 
southeastward across the Midwest and toward the Ohio Valley during 
the day, with substantial cooling aloft across the Great Lakes. Cold 
air aloft coupled with the relatively warm lakes may result in 
low-topped thunderstorms from northeast Ohio into western New York 
during the afternoon and evening. 

To the south, an east-west oriented front will continue to push 
south toward the northern Gulf Coast, where 65-70 f dewpoints will 
exist supporting a few weak thunderstorms prior to the front moving 

To the west, a weak upper low will approach coastal central 
California, with steep lapse rates aloft extending eastward toward 
the Colorado River valley. Midlevel moisture will spread northwest 
across Arizona and into the Great Basin during the evening, with 
scattered thunderstorms expected. Small hail cannot be ruled out 
with some of the cells due to cold air aloft and modest deep-layer 
shear, but severe weather is not anticipated. 

.Jewell.. 10/18/2018