Tropical Storm Bud Is Lashing Southern Baja California Peninsula, Including Los Cabos, Mexico, With Gusty Winds, Rain and High Surf

June 14, 2018

Rain and gusty winds from Tropical Storm Bud are spreading across Mexico's southern Baja Peninsula. The good news is that Bud will continue to weaken after becoming the second Category 4 hurricane in just over three days in the Eastern Pacific Ocean early Tuesday.

(MORE: Hurricane Central)

Bud will also bring a slug of moisture northward through this weekend across western Mexico, the Rockies and perhaps up into the northern Plains. 

Current Status

Bud is crossing through southern Baja California, including Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, moving north-northwestward. Bud is slowly beginning to accelerate. 

Current Storm Status

Infrared satellite imagery Thursday afternoon showed Bud's convection continuing to erode over the increasingly cooler waters of the northeastern Pacific.

Forecast Track, Impacts

Bud is now in its final weakening phase as it tracks over cooler ocean water.

According to the latest National Hurricane Center forecast, Bud's center will cross the southern tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula later Thursday.

At that time, Bud is expected to have weakened to a low-end tropical storm, with periods of rain and gusty winds.

Bud's Forecast Path

(FORECAST: Los Cabos, Mexico)

An observation from the marina in Cabo San Lucas recently reported a gust to 66 mph.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for southern Baja California, including Los Cabos, and tropical storm conditions are already occurring within the warning area.

Tropical storm watches are also in effect for a portion of the Mexican mainland, including Los Mochis. 

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings

Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations over southwestern Mexico of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated totals up to 3 inches, through Thursday. In Baja California and northwestern Mexico, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with localized totals up to 6 inches, are expected from Bud through Saturday.

This heavy rain could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, especially in high-terrain areas.

High surf and rip currents will also be a threat along the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula. If in doubt, stay out of the water at area beaches, and heed all warnings from local lifeguards.

Bud will then degenerate quickly as it moves up the southern Baja Peninsula, Gulf of California and northwestern Mexico.

However, Bud's remnant moisture will surge into the Desert Southwest, triggering thunderstorms there into this weekend.

Up to 3 inches of rainfall is possible across Arizona, especially southern Arizona, toward the end of this week. This may lead to some flooding, especially in areas down river from dry creekbeds (arroyos). 

(MORE: First Rain in Over Three Months Possible in Parts of Arizona From Remnant Moisture)

An Active Start to the Season

An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees the first hurricane form by June 26, according to National Hurricane Center data from 1971 to 2009.

The average dates of the first and second major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) in the basin, however, aren't until July 19 and August 19, respectively, according to the NHC.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center meteorologist Alex Lamers tweeted it's only the third time on record the first two named Eastern Pacific storms of the season became major hurricanes.

The 2015 season began with Category 4 Hurricane Andres followed by Category 4 Hurricane Blanca, the record-earliest-in-season second Eastern Pacific hurricane and major hurricane, which later became the record-earliest Baja California landfall, as a tropical storm.

(MORE: With Two Category 4 Eastern Pacific Hurricanes In Four Days, Should We Be Worried About the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season?)

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