Tropical Cyclone Berguitta

Last Updated: 1516298400

Location:
-22.4N 305.2E
Movement:
WSW at 21 mph
Wind:
70 mph
Pressure:
--

Storm Maps
Storm Details

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000 
wtxs31 pgtw 182100
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone 06s (berguitta) warning nr 025//
rmks/
1. Tropical cyclone 06s (berguitta) warning nr 025    
   01 active tropical cyclone in southio
   Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
   wind radii valid over open water only
    ---
   warning position:
   181800z --- near 22.4s 54.8e
     movement past six hours - 240 degrees at 19 kts
     position accurate to within 040 nm
     position based on center located by a combination of 
     satellite and radar
   present wind distribution:
   Max sustained winds - 060 kt, gusts 075 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 050 kt winds - 080 nm northeast quadrant
                            090 nm southeast quadrant
                            080 nm southwest quadrant
                            060 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 155 nm northeast quadrant
                            235 nm southeast quadrant
                            200 nm southwest quadrant
                            100 nm northwest quadrant
   repeat posit: 22.4s 54.8e
    ---
   forecasts:
   12 hrs, valid at:
   190600z --- 23.9s 52.8e
   Max sustained winds - 055 kt, gusts 070 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 050 kt winds - 055 nm northeast quadrant
                            105 nm southeast quadrant
                            075 nm southwest quadrant
                            040 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 170 nm northeast quadrant
                            280 nm southeast quadrant
                            255 nm southwest quadrant
                            115 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 24 hr posit: 215 deg/ 12 kts
    ---
   24 hrs, valid at:
   191800z --- 25.8s 51.3e
   Max sustained winds - 055 kt, gusts 070 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 050 kt winds - 065 nm northeast quadrant
                            100 nm southeast quadrant
                            070 nm southwest quadrant
                            050 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 190 nm northeast quadrant
                            265 nm southeast quadrant
                            230 nm southwest quadrant
                            110 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 36 hr posit: 200 deg/ 13 kts
    ---
   36 hrs, valid at:
   200600z --- 28.3s 50.4e
   Max sustained winds - 050 kt, gusts 065 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 050 kt winds - 070 nm northeast quadrant
                            090 nm southeast quadrant
                            065 nm southwest quadrant
                            055 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 205 nm northeast quadrant
                            255 nm southeast quadrant
                            215 nm southwest quadrant
                            130 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 48 hr posit: 175 deg/ 13 kts
    ---
   extended outlook:
   48 hrs, valid at:
   201800z --- 30.8s 50.7e
   Max sustained winds - 050 kt, gusts 065 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   becoming extratropical
   radius of 050 kt winds - 060 nm northeast quadrant
                            080 nm southeast quadrant
                            065 nm southwest quadrant
                            040 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 205 nm northeast quadrant
                            240 nm southeast quadrant
                            210 nm southwest quadrant
                            145 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 72 hr posit: 140 deg/ 07 kts
    ---
   72 hrs, valid at:
   211800z --- 33.1s 52.9e
   Max sustained winds - 045 kt, gusts 055 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   becoming extratropical
   radius of 034 kt winds - 170 nm northeast quadrant
                            250 nm southeast quadrant
                            240 nm southwest quadrant
                            185 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 96 hr posit: 120 deg/ 12 kts
    ---
   long range outlook:
    ---
   96 hrs, valid at:
   221800z --- 35.5s 57.8e
   Max sustained winds - 045 kt, gusts 055 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   extratropical
   radius of 034 kt winds - 190 nm northeast quadrant
                            280 nm southeast quadrant
                            270 nm southwest quadrant
                            215 nm northwest quadrant
    ---
remarks:
182100z position near 22.8s 54.3e.
Tropical cyclone 06s (berguitta), located approximately 117 nm
south-southwest of St Denis, has tracked west-southwestward at 19
knots over the past six hours. Recent animated infrared satellite 
imagery shows a central convective mass covering the low-level 
circulation center. Radar imagery from La Reunion and a 1533z ssmis 
37ghz microwave image show a well-defined center feature, and the 
current position is based on these sources as well as a 1737z ascat 
pass. The intensity of 60 knots is slightly higher than Dvorak 
current intensity estimates ranging from t3.0 to t3.5 (45-55 knots) 
from knes and pgtw, respectively, and is supported by recent 
automated satellite intensity consensus estimates. The system has 
weakened slighlty over the past six hours, with warming convective 
tops evident in infrared satellite data confirming the weakening 
trend. Tc 06s is turning poleward along the periphery of a steering 
ridge situated to the south and east, and is expected to continue 
tracking around the ridge throughout the forecast period. An upper-
level anticyclone over tc 06s has resulted in decreasing vertical 
wind shear over the system. However, shear is expected to increase 
slightly, and along-track sea surface temperatures are expected to 
decrease, inducing a slow weakening trend in the near to medium-
term. By tau 48, tc 06s will begin extratropical transition, and 
favorable interaction with the baroclinic zone will enable the 
system to maintain intensity around 45 knots as it completes 
extratropical transition by tau 96. Numerical models are in 
excellent agreement regarding the track and intensity, lending high 
confidence to the current forecast. Maximum significant wave height 
at 181800z is 16 feet. Next warnings at 190300z, 190900z, 191500z 
and 192100z.//
Nnnn

Learn more about Tropical Cyclone Berguitta and the 2018 South Indian Ocean hurricane season in our hurricane archive.

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Storm Track Statistics

Date Time Lat Lon Wind (mph) Pressure Storm Type
Jan 12 18 GMT -17 66.9 40 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 00 GMT -17.3 65.6 40 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 06 GMT -17.7 64.9 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 12 GMT -17.9 64.0 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 18 GMT -18.3 63.6 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 00 GMT -18.2 63.4 60 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 06 GMT -18.1 63.0 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 12 GMT -18.1 62.9 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 18 GMT -18 63.1 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 00 GMT -17.8 63.2 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 06 GMT -17.8 63.2 85 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 12 GMT -18 63.0 105 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 18 GMT -18.1 62.6 115 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 00 GMT -18.2 61.9 115 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 06 GMT -18 61.6 110 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 12 GMT -18.2 61.1 100 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 18 GMT -18.2 60.8 90 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 00 GMT -18.3 60.6 90 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 06 GMT -18.1 60.2 80 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 12 GMT -18.3 59.8 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 18 GMT -18.9 59.5 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 18 00 GMT -19.7 58.5 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 18 06 GMT -20.7 57.6 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 18 12 GMT -21.5 56.6 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 18 18 GMT -22.4 54.8 70 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 12 18 GMT -17 66.9 40 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 00 GMT -17.3 65.6 40 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 06 GMT -17.7 64.9 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 12 GMT -17.9 64.0 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 18 GMT -18.3 63.6 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 00 GMT -18.2 63.4 60 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 06 GMT -18.1 63.0 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 12 GMT -18.1 62.9 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 18 GMT -18 63.1 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 00 GMT -17.8 63.2 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 06 GMT -17.8 63.2 85 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 12 GMT -18 63.0 105 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 18 GMT -18.1 62.6 115 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 00 GMT -18.2 61.9 115 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 06 GMT -18 61.6 110 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 12 GMT -18.2 61.1 100 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 18 GMT -18.2 60.8 90 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 00 GMT -18.3 60.6 90 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 06 GMT -18.1 60.2 80 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 12 GMT -18.3 59.8 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 18 GMT -18.9 59.5 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 18 00 GMT -19.7 58.5 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 18 06 GMT -20.7 57.6 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 18 12 GMT -21.5 56.6 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 18 18 GMT -22.4 54.8 70 -- Tropical Cyclone

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Learn more about Tropical Cyclone Berguitta and the 2018 South Indian Ocean hurricane season in our hurricane archive.

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