Intense New England Hurricanes Much More Numerous 340 to 1800 Years Ago

By: Jeff Masters , 6:43 PM GMT on February 17, 2015

Numerous Category 3 and 4 hurricanes frequently pounded New England during the first millennium, from the peak of the Roman Empire into the height of the Middle Ages, said a study accepted for publication this month in the open-access journal Earth’s Future, Climate Forcing of Unprecedented Intense-Hurricane Activity in the Last 2,000 Years. These prehistoric hurricanes were stronger than any hurricane documented to hit the region since the mid-1800s, and would be catastrophic if they hit the region today, according to Jeff Donnelly, a scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) in Massachusetts and lead author of the new paper. In a press release, Donnelly said, “We hope this study broadens our sense of what is possible and what we should expect in a warmer climate. We may need to begin planning for a category 3 hurricane landfall every decade or so rather than every 100 or 200 years.”


Figure 1. The storm surge from Category 2 Hurricane Carol in 1954 batters New England's Edgewood Yacht Club near Providence, Rhode Island. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

The paper is the latest contribution to the field of paleotempestology--the study of past tropical cyclone activity by means sediment deposits, cave speleothems, tree rings, coral deposits, as well as historical documentary records. In this case, the researchers took sediment cores from Salt Pond near Falmouth on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. The pond is separated from the ocean by a 1.3- to 1.8-meter (4.3- to 5.9-foot) high sand barrier. Over hundreds of years, storm surges from Category 2 and stronger hurricanes have deposited sediment over the barrier and into the pond. The scientists were able to calibrate the timing of the intense hurricane strikes by dating the layers from Category 2 Hurricane Bob of 1991, the 1675 (September 7) New England hurricane, and the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635, which passed across southeastern New England and caused widespread damage consistent with a category 3 hurricane.


Figure 2. Scientists collect a sediment core from Salt Pond in Falmouth, Massachusetts, to study hurricane overwash deposits placed there by storm surges from intense hurricanes. The aluminum tube was vibrated into the muddy sediment at the bottom of the pond and then extracted with a hoist. Image Credit: WHOI

The prehistoric sediments showed that there were two periods of elevated intense hurricane activity on Cape Cod--from 150 to 1150, and from 1400 to 1675. Previous paleotempestology studies also found evidence of high hurricane activity during 150 - 1150 A.D. from the Caribbean to the Gulf Coast. Both time periods had unusually warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region for hurricanes, from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa. Warm ocean temperatures in this region have been linked to increased intense hurricane activity by a number of recent research papers. In recent decades, ocean temperatures in the Main Development Region have surpassed the warmth of prehistoric levels, and these waters are expected to warm further over the next century as the climate heats up, suggesting that intense hurricane activity in New England may return to the levels of 340 to 1800 years ago. However, other factors besides warming SSTs will also shape what happens in the North Atlantic. For example, the pattern of ocean warming could bring more El Niño-style wind shear to the Atlantic, reducing hurricane activity. Still, New England would be wise to take heed of Donnelly's advice that we may need to begin planning for a category 3 hurricane landfall every decade or so rather than every 100 or 200 years.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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486. vis0
10:34 AM GMT on February 19, 2015

Quoting 222. BaltimoreBrian:


THE FOLLOWING IS NOT FOR SAR2401 TO READ it might bring on convoluted convolutions.

This was after people from "other (king) worlds" dominated their (ancient people(s) of "gnowledge") "thoughts".
Originally the sticking into you know where was done to infants after infants being in specific dark caves for 3 days & 3 nights. These caves had certain crystal energy properties that react to low sun activities and create many of those flying plasma +++ orbs many call UFOs and are caught on video throughout South America, that's how they were picked by ancient "gnowledgeable" people observing which caves had "sphorbs" hovering over them, specially the plasma balls that make right turns.
 These plasma balls many call UFOs i call "'sphorbs" and are the equatorial, low sun / INWARD activities version of the polar regions high sun/ outward activities Aurora Borealis.   

As to the original "stickings" if the infant did not cry it had the ability to go into deep meditation and wore the purple colours and becam,e spiritual leaders that could read wxtrends years ahead of others.
 
MANY hundreds+++++++++++++++++++ of yrs later that became a religious way of life for some in Northern Africa (circumsn) & in S. America it became more to do with  blood, battles and barbarisms due to the influence of European settlers beliefs, some called religious beliefs and that "times/periods" way of thinking.



Human development is not linear its cyclical

for ~12k yrs we LEAN TOWARDS male dominated, selfish, listen to elders without questioning, build outward & invade (now called war)
THEN

for ~12k yrs we LEAN TOWARDS female dominated, selfless, listen to youngsters without questioning, build inward, share (now called social)

Also being physical being these cycles blend as we learn by blend i mean go towards lower extreme swings of the pendulum.

What do i say causes these ~12,000 yr cycles i call duo-deciums? (really like every 11,500 yrs)

Its 1 of 3 "light" links that allowed humanity to exist as beings of self, soul & spirit (no not soooulll train), this particular cycle is caused by the Planets' Precession and this solar system maintaining a link between its sibling stars...stars?
only 1 Sun?!
ah but its sibling black star ~16 Lt Yrs away maintains a counter flow to out bright Star.
Study what happens when deep sounds are played onto a complex beings (humans) chakras, NOT GOOD (why harrp is bad cause its also sound from physically grounded sources, so is electrical "hum") now imagine sounds/resonances lower than 0.1 to the power of -32 bathing this planet every other 12,000 yrs or ~ half Earth precession, these "sounds" are ethereally grounded (as the ml-d) that is a healthier way to transmit sounds . Other clues left in ancient scriptures are what some today call religious hand gestures, its really how the planets & 2 stars dance in the heavens, in scriptures its called the battles between Lucifer (prince of darkness/black holes) and Sun of God and goes on & on no one winning cause its a cycle, but i digress this is a weather site. Tomorrow partly cloudy with some Sun, highs in the lower uppers, with 100% chance of something


sincerely part Mayan/Mian (doesn't make me right just "Gnowledgeable") or ya can call me, nut (Ra) though i'm wearing clothing and am a dude.
,peace
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
485. vis0
9:39 AM GMT on February 19, 2015

Quoting 8. barbamz:

Wow, doc: "paleotempestology", "speleothem" - new stuff for me: I will try to keep those words in mind in order to smugly throw them around at next opportunity, lol. - Very interesting findings, and thank you for telling us.



am i at the right place, wxsite? Those words seem more connected to a checkup? At least i learned 2 new words "doc" & "smugly" i hope i pronounced them correctly?
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484. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:26 AM GMT on February 19, 2015
Quoting 479. NativeSun:

How did they measure the temps back then?
from core samples and the type of material it consisted of
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483. NativeSun
12:35 AM GMT on February 19, 2015
Quoting 425. ricderr:


I'm just going to let this hurricane season come as it is.



nope....folks..let me help you out as i have rattled the chicken bones......read my tarot cards....checked the alignment of the stars....messaged spirits through a seance.....researched tea leaves.....and of course....looked at the farmers almanac......

THE 2015 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON WILL PRODUCE NO HURRICANES....

that's a fact jack....nothing more needs to be said....subject is closed....next topic please


Are you talking about the Atlantic, or all tropical basins?
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482. NativeSun
12:28 AM GMT on February 19, 2015
Quoting 385. StormTrackerScott:



The model i posted is the CFSv2 and it updates every 6 hours on Weatherbell and yes it does show a strip of 3C to 4C anomalies with a average of likely 2C for the area as a whole. Again good try to you as well.
Hi, if your using Weather Bell, what is JB saying about a possible Nino this summer?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
480. NativeSun
12:22 AM GMT on February 19, 2015
Quoting 371. cRRKampen:


Right, like IPCC used to be named 'IPGW'.
And never mind last year was a #1 again, no?
A number 1 in how many years of reliable data, and how long has the Earth been in existence?
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479. NativeSun
12:18 AM GMT on February 19, 2015
Quoting 358. LAbonbon:


"In recent decades, ocean temperatures in the Main Development Region have surpassed the warmth of prehistoric levels"

Now that could be considered even more amazing.


How did they measure the temps back then?
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478. sar2401
9:10 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting Xandra:
Despite frigid conditions in the East, U.S. seeing more record warmth this winter

... Although residents of the Midwest, South, and East Coast are justified in complaining about the seemingly never-ending cold and snow, so far this winter, the warmth in the West is outpacing the cold when it comes to record temperatures and overall endurance of the unusual temperatures.

According to data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, North Carolina, there were 3,829 daily high temperature records set or tied in the U.S. during the past 30 days, as well as 3,368 record warm overnight low temperature records set or tied. This compares to just 498 records set or tied for the coldest high temperature, along with 386 daily records set or tied for the coldest low temperature ...

I don't think using the number of new temperature records set is a very good indicator for overall climate. Temperature anomaly
is generally more useful than absolute temperature. The shear number of stations on the West Coast, combined with a much more variable climate, is almost always going to show more high and cold records than the East. In addition, January wasn't a very cold month almost anywhere but the Northeast (where all the media live) and south Texas.



February is orders of magnitude colder east of the Rockies. It's also orders of magnitude warmer west of the Rockies. The warmth in the West might be offset by the cold in the East this month, so we might see to about a zero change in overall warming in the US. As long as the West stays this warm, how cold it gets in the East is almost irrelevant in terms of climate.

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477. Jedkins01
8:50 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 474. tampabaymatt:



I was living in the Brandon area during that winter, which routinely gets a lot colder than Pinellas and Tampa proper. I remember one day during that stretch my wife and I were driving home from dinner at around 7 PM and the car was registering an outside temp of 34 degrees, at 7 PM! I knew that was going to be a brutal night. Haha.


Yeah I think Bradenton is often colder because it's not quite as big of a city, and the land is very rural just northeast of there, so I thin cold air often blows in there from the northeast in the cooler more rural areas during cold events.

I still can't believe how cold that winter was, it's amazing that actually wasn't the coldest winter on record in the Tampa Bay area, I think it was the 4th coldest from what I remember. I don't feel like digging up the actual right now lol, but pretty sure it was 3rd or 4th coldest. As horrible as it was you'd think it was the coldest, lol.

Not to say 3rd or 4th isn't rare though of course.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
476. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
8:50 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
475. Jedkins01
8:43 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 310. StormTrackerScott:

A Whopping 1.58" last night! 3.60" now for February here in Longwood. 6.91" for the year so far this is more than double what is average for this time of year.


Yeah that turned into a pretty good event, that late night rain band was pretty potent. Every rain gauge I saw got between 1.25 and 1.75 in Central Florida for the event. Interesting the the HRR has been doing better consistently with QPF than the euro or GFS with precip events down there. The GFS and euro had qpf in the 0.50-0.70 down there, while the HRR showed a good swath of more than one inch, the HRR definitely prevailed.

I got 0.59 which isn't bad, but Central Florida has been beating us up here with rain totals for every cold front so far in February, lol.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
474. tampabaymatt
8:42 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 461. Jedkins01:



Yeah I wasn't up here at FSU yet back then so I was still n the Tampa Bay area, and thank God, it would have been even worse here. Apparently lows in the teens were numerous that winter up here.
But yeah that winter was horrible in the Tampa Bay area, I remember having a mix of cold rain and sleet that day and the high was only in the 30's, it bottomed out to 24 overnight into the next morning. And all the cold rain refroze and made everything slick and dangerous later at night. It still stands as the coldest morning ever recorded on the weather station since it was installed in 2003 at my parents house in Pinellas county.

I had gone out with some friends that night and encountered black ice that formed on one of the overpasses, yes the bridge was freaking iced and they even had traffic warning messages about it, which is amazingly well prepared considering it NEVER happens in Pinellas, lol, it was only 11 PM at the time but was already below freezing.
It also was so darn cold that HIGHS stayed below 50 for several days during the worst of that cold period too. It was so strange, most days throughout all of January were highs in the 50's and lows in the 30's. It was rare that we hit 60 even for a day or two for January, it was so strange,

I don't know if you remember this but the Clearwater beach water temp remarkably dropped below 40 degrees, which was terrible for the sea life, many fish and other sea life washed up dead as the water got so cold. The stench of dead fish, cold water and cold air ruined winter tourism that winter. I remember that it took until June for the gulf temp to actually enjoy being warm enough to swim.
I hope we never see a winter like that again, let's not even get started on how damaging it was for the tropical plant and fruit injury. My parents lost so many plants to cold death that winter, it was terrible.





I was living in the Brandon area during that winter, which routinely gets a lot colder than Pinellas and Tampa proper. I remember one day during that stretch my wife and I were driving home from dinner at around 7 PM and the car was registering an outside temp of 34 degrees, at 7 PM! I knew that was going to be a brutal night. Haha.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
473. LAbonbon
8:37 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 454. sar2401:

The cold part is definitely right. My low was supposed be 29 but the actual was 24. It's supposed to be 20 tonight but the last three days forecasts lows have been too warm by 3-5 degrees. I hope it's right this time. It's a real struggle to keep the greenhouse above 32 when the air temperature gets much below 20. I added an extra heater for tonight and tomorrow night, which should be the coldest. My electric bill is going to be terrible. It was windy earlier today but the winds are starting to relax, which is not a good thing for the cold tonight. We touched 50 for about 5 minutes but now it's back down to 48. By Saturday, we go into the mid-60's and about 70 on Sunday, with an outside chance for severe thunderstorms. The roller coaster ride continues.

EDIT: Forgot to say I did get 0.54" of rain out of the last system, 0.41" of which fell in a half hour as that skinny little band of showers came through. I've about given up on the idea of something like a nice day long rain, but I'll take what I can get.

Afternoon, sar. Still breezy here, but the gusts have abated. Mid-50s now, which is much nicer than when I woke up, and warmer than yesterday. The cold woke me up in the wee hours - my house was quite cold. For a minute there I thought the heater had died :o This house really isn't built for the cold, unfortunately. Don't want to complain, though, as many folks are experiencing much, much colder temps.

Similar temps expected tonight/tomorrow morning, high 20s, so not as cold as you. Hope you can keep your plants and your pipes warm enough.

Got 0.93" here from that front two days ago. Seems they really do lose steam when they get to you :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
472. Drakoen
8:35 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 465. StormTrackerScott:



It's been very wet here since last year mainly because of warm nuetral conditions across the Pacifc and if the tarot cards are correct with all but one showing El-Nino then this year could be even wetter than last year. Well see!


:)
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471. wxgeek723
8:35 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
I'll be honest, relative to the cold we've been seeing and with the February sun, 25 degrees doesn't feel half bad.
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470. washingtonian115
8:34 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 455. Drakoen:



It'll be gone this weekend when we torch into the 50s with rain.
Then I see no point of this cold air...
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469. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:32 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
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468. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:31 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
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467. hurricanes2018
8:27 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
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466. hurricanes2018
8:27 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
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465. StormTrackerScott
8:26 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 453. Jedkins01:



Yeah I looked at last years rain gauge totals in West Central Florida, most places saw between 62 and 68 inches of rain for the year, the only exception below 60 was Tampa International Airport at 56 inches. But again, not surprising, as I've discussed that Tampa International is always a bit drier over a long term for some reason than stations even a few mils away not sure why but it is. Whether it be wetter than average years or drier than average. Tampa Almost always get less rain year to date than most other sites in Florida including all the other ones in the Tampa Bay area and Central Florida.
It's always puzzled me, oh well.

Last 3 to 4 years actually, rainfall has been over 60 inches for rain gauge sites in the Tampa Bay area, and over the last 10 years only a couple years saw below average rainfall, the rest were near or above.

So any water shortages we've had have been due to the fact that Florida has a very shallow area that can actually store drinking water and we waste it more than most areas because we have high yearly average rain but fail to realize that not as much of it can be stored long term than many continental areas due to it being a relatively new landmass that has less available room for underground water storage.

Whatever the case, some have worried about water shortages and drought in Florida for a while because of our sandy soil which dries out quickly and doesn't sore water well, and because we waste so much fresh water as a state. However, like of said, precip data doesn't seem to indicate any reason to be concerned about drought, no signs of any climate drying, if anything it's trending a bit wetter over the last decade.

All we have to do is learn to conserve and use water better, and learn to convert more salt water for drinking use and leave more of the rain water to the plants and wildlife given that our watery climate is composed of plants and animals that rely on lots of lakes, rivers, wet forests and such.


It's been very wet here since last year mainly because of warm nuetral conditions across the Pacifc and if the models are correct with all but one showing El-Nino then this year could be even wetter than last year. Well see!
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464. hurricanes2018
8:25 PM GMT on February 18, 2015



more snow!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
463. Jedkins01
8:25 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 452. hydrus:

Well put..Most here know there are individuals that routinely argue for the purpose of arguing, not to exchange meaningful information , or share important findings from scientific data that takes hard work, time, and funding to acquire. Someone that has to force there opinion here or anywhere instead of explaining the truth or facts behind it will usually not be taken seriously.


Exactly!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
462. robinvtx1215
8:24 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 442. HouGalv08:

Doesn't make sense. Everybody "dripping" water lowers the water pressure then it stops "dripping", then the pipes freeze because the "dripping" stopped. Not to mention lowering the water pressure for fire fighting. Better idea is to shut the water off to the house and "drain the house".
Sure, it will be "inconvenient" but better than busted pipes. Done so many times here in Houston.

In Houston, I was always told, dripping did nothing to prevent pipes busting or getting cracks and leaks. I knew an elderly gentleman, when we had a very cold week here, he sat in his attic for 3 days with several hair dryers and heaters. He was obsessed with the pipes busting after 1989 here in Houston. I flying to NE Ohio tomorrow morning. Will be there visiting my parents until Monday. It will be very cold but I am looking forward to the snow. My ski clothes are already there.
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461. Jedkins01
8:24 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 450. tampabaymatt:



That winter was brutal. Many days of hard freezes in Tampa. I'll never forget one day where the high did not get out of the 30s. I had never seen that before and may never again.


Yeah I wasn't up here at FSU yet back then so I was still n the Tampa Bay area, and thank God, it would have been even worse here. Apparently lows in the teens were numerous that winter up here.
But yeah that winter was horrible in the Tampa Bay area, I remember having a mix of cold rain and sleet that day and the high was only in the 30's, it bottomed out to 24 overnight into the next morning. And all the cold rain refroze and made everything slick and dangerous later at night. It still stands as the coldest morning ever recorded on the weather station since it was installed in 2003 at my parents house in Pinellas county.

I had gone out with some friends that night and encountered black ice that formed on one of the overpasses, yes the bridge was freaking iced and they even had traffic warning messages about it, which is amazingly well prepared considering it NEVER happens in Pinellas, lol, it was only 11 PM at the time but was already below freezing.
It also was so darn cold that HIGHS stayed below 50 for several days during the worst of that cold period too. It was so strange, most days throughout all of January were highs in the 50's and lows in the 30's. It was rare that we hit 60 even for a day or two for January, it was so strange,

I don't know if you remember this but the Clearwater beach water temp remarkably dropped below 40 degrees, which was terrible for the sea life, many fish and other sea life washed up dead as the water got so cold. The stench of dead fish, cold water and cold air ruined winter tourism that winter. I remember that it took until June for the gulf temp to actually enjoy being warm enough to swim.
I hope we never see a winter like that again, let's not even get started on how damaging it was for the tropical plant and fruit injury. My parents lost so many plants to cold death that winter, it was terrible.


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
460. sar2401
8:23 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting ricderr:
............It seems like you need a new ............keyboard.



ahem....some of us like to use multiple periods...instead of proper punctuation.........
Ric, since you refuse to use the quote feature, it would really help if you would at least put what you're quoting in italics. Maybe put some dashes under it, or something. I have a really hard time figuring out where a quote ends and what you reply. I know the multiple periods thing is your trademark. It's irritating, but at least I can mentally add punctuation. :-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
459. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:23 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 425. ricderr:


I'm just going to let this hurricane season come as it is.



nope....folks..let me help you out as i have rattled the chicken bones......read my tarot cards....checked the alignment of the stars....messaged spirits through a seance.....researched tea leaves.....and of course....looked at the farmers almanac......

THE 2015 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON WILL PRODUCE NO HURRICANES....

that's a fact jack....nothing more needs to be said....subject is closed....next topic please


well I would say for that watch wait and see
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
458. Xandra
8:22 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Despite frigid conditions in the East, U.S. seeing more record warmth this winter

... Although residents of the Midwest, South, and East Coast are justified in complaining about the seemingly never-ending cold and snow, so far this winter, the warmth in the West is outpacing the cold when it comes to record temperatures and overall endurance of the unusual temperatures.

According to data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, North Carolina, there were 3,829 daily high temperature records set or tied in the U.S. during the past 30 days, as well as 3,368 record warm overnight low temperature records set or tied. This compares to just 498 records set or tied for the coldest high temperature, along with 386 daily records set or tied for the coldest low temperature ...
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457. dabirds
8:20 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Holding steady between 7 & 9, depending on cloud cover, this afternoon in S C IL. Winds have mainly been 10 - 20 mph W-WNW, gusting to low 30s, but have seen some NW starting to sneak in this p.m. Needless to say, sub zero windchill, which should peak in the minus 20s as the winds die down a bit when we head toward minus 5,6 tomorrow morning.

See the long range has single digit lows for early next week as well. Weekend precip chances now all at 50% and high temp for Sat now 35 w/ mix, snow Fri & Sat evening. Hope it changes to all snow, at worst sleet. Those high 60s 10 days ago seem such a distant memory.

Picked up another inch or two of dry fluff last night, but it's being blown to the east now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
456. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:13 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
High temperatures are currently forecast to reach the mid- to upper-20s tomorrow and Friday. If this forecast does verify, this will be the first time Wilmington, NC has recorded two consecutive sub-freezing days since February 1996 (before I was born). Brr...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
455. Drakoen
8:10 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 451. washingtonian115:

The polar Vortex is making return to D.C..

Don't call it a comeback
I been here for years
Rockin my peers and puttin suckas in fear
Makin the tears rain down like a MON-soon

Link


It'll be gone this weekend when we torch into the 50s with rain.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
454. sar2401
8:09 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting LAbonbon:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2015

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 18 2015 - 12Z Fri Feb 20 2015

***Areas of snow from the Great Lakes to New England***

***Historic cold for the eastern U.S. late this week***

***Remaining mild and dry for the western United States***

The overall weather pattern through the end of the week will continue to
be featured with a pronounced upper level trough over the eastern half of
the country, and a big upper level ridge for the western states. This
will keep the West Coast, the Intermountain West, and the Desert Southwest
warmer and drier than normal, and the central and eastern parts of the
U.S. much colder than normal. Although the weather is pleasant out west,
the drought continues for California and much of the Intermountain West,
and no appreciable rain is in the forecast over the next couple of days.
There may be a few showers over western Washington state, but that is
about it.

Over the eastern half of the nation, we all know that it has been quite
cold over the past week. Get ready for an even more impressive surge of
arctic air later this week as another cold front drops south from Canada.
There are indications that this could be some of the coldest weather since
the mid-1990s for parts of the Southeast U.S., Mid-Atlantic, and central
Appalachians. An eddy of the polar vortex will add to the potency of the
surface cold front, thus creating a deep layer of bitterly cold air.
Highs on Thursday and Friday will struggle to get out of the teens for
many of these areas, and overnight lows could reach zero degrees or even
lower in some areas!
After Friday, temperatures are forecast to moderate
and become more tolerable.

In the precipitation department, no major areas of rain or snow are
expected over the next 48 hours. There will be periods of light snow and
snow showers from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and New England as
shortwave energy with the arctic front moves across the region. Some lake
effect snow showers will be possible as well. Lingering showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible for the Florida peninsula before the cold
front clears the state by later Wednesday.

D. Hamrick


The cold part is definitely right. My low was supposed be 29 but the actual was 24. It's supposed to be 20 tonight but the last three days forecasts lows have been too warm by 3-5 degrees. I hope it's right this time. It's a real struggle to keep the greenhouse above 32 when the air temperature gets much below 20. I added an extra heater for tonight and tomorrow night, which should be the coldest. My electric bill is going to be terrible. It was windy earlier today but the winds are starting to relax, which is not a good thing for the cold tonight. We touched 50 for about 5 minutes but now it's back down to 48. By Saturday, we go into the mid-60's and about 70 on Sunday, with an outside chance for severe thunderstorms. The roller coaster ride continues.

EDIT: Forgot to say I did get 0.54" of rain out of the last system, 0.41" of which fell in a half hour as that skinny little band of showers came through. I've about given up on the idea of something like a nice day long rain, but I'll take what I can get.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
453. Jedkins01
8:08 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 334. StormTrackerScott:



Saw nearly 70" last year and we are already off to a fast start again this year and I worry that with every model except one showing El-Nino that a predominate westerly flow maybe in place again this Summer as was the case last year.


Yeah I looked at last years rain gauge totals in West Central Florida, most places saw between 62 and 68 inches of rain for the year, the only exception below 60 was Tampa International Airport at 56 inches. But again, not surprising, as I've discussed that Tampa International is always a bit drier over a long term for some reason than stations even a few mils away not sure why but it is. Whether it be wetter than average years or drier than average. Tampa Almost always get less rain year to date than most other sites in Florida including all the other ones in the Tampa Bay area and Central Florida.
It's always puzzled me, oh well.

Last 3 to 4 years actually, rainfall has been over 60 inches for rain gauge sites in the Tampa Bay area, and over the last 10 years only a couple years saw below average rainfall, the rest were near or above.

So any water shortages we've had have been due to the fact that Florida has a very shallow area that can actually store drinking water and we waste it more than most areas because we have high yearly average rain but fail to realize that not as much of it can be stored long term than many continental areas due to it being a relatively new landmass that has less available room for underground water storage.

Whatever the case, some have worried about water shortages and drought in Florida for a while because of our sandy soil which dries out quickly and doesn't sore water well, and because we waste so much fresh water as a state. However, like of said, precip data doesn't seem to indicate any reason to be concerned about drought, no signs of any climate drying, if anything it's trending a bit wetter over the last decade.

All we have to do is learn to conserve and use water better, and learn to convert more salt water for drinking use and leave more of the rain water to the plants and wildlife given that our watery climate is composed of plants and animals that rely on lots of lakes, rivers, wet forests and such.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
452. hydrus
8:04 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 439. Jedkins01:


If for example the types of people who only attack meteorologists for getting a forecast wrong had any clue how the models work or meteorologists apply them, maybe people would have more respect for meteorology and model forecasts.
But of course, it seems that there always some who, even if they had a clue, would still insist they know better. Plus, that would require a lot of hard work and thought, and learning, none of which are usually in the best interest of people who boastfully attack people in a field that is over his/her head.

I'm not expecting people to have a clue how most model forecasts work, it's ok to be ignorant. Ignorant never means stupid. There were many people who have been very smart in ages of the past who were ignorant of what is common knowledge today. We are all ignorant about most things, and wouldn't have the time in a human life span not to anyway. What is stupid is when someone who is knowingly ignorant thinks his/her silly opinion matters more and is more accurate than hard established research and work of experts in a science.
Well put..Most here know there are individuals that routinely argue for the purpose of arguing, not to exchange meaningful information , or share important findings from scientific data that takes hard work, time, and funding to acquire. Someone that has to force there opinion here or anywhere instead of explaining the truth or facts behind it will usually not be taken seriously.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
451. washingtonian115
8:03 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
The polar Vortex is making return to D.C..

Don't call it a comeback
I been here for years
Rockin my peers and puttin suckas in fear
Makin the tears rain down like a MON-soon

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
450. tampabaymatt
7:57 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 447. Jedkins01:



lol, I know I do if it goes on too long. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather live down here hands down. However, I do like the fall and winter seasonal change, just in a more moderated Florida kind of way. I prefer Central and northern Florida's winters over south Florida because they are still mild but consistently see more cool air events than south Florida. It get cool enough in this part of the state to give you a taste of something different, but also leaves just as fast, and warm weather quickly returns just like taking a vacation.

Plus because it doesn't last long its fun like a storm, and it provides an interesting change and contrast to the jungle foliage and warm weather looking landscape. But then I want my Florida weather back, people up north can keep their endless cloudy cold days below freezing and heaps of ice everywhere that won't melt. Who wants to live in a freezer for a whole season?

The only time it was consistently was very cold in Florida since I've lived here for a whole season was the winter of 2010/2011, that was obnoxiously cold to where I hated it. I think Tampa's January statistics ranked as cold as typical winter in Tennessee.




That winter was brutal. Many days of hard freezes in Tampa. I'll never forget one day where the high did not get out of the 30s. I had never seen that before and may never again.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
449. MahFL
7:54 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 422. weathermanwannabe:

... make sure you drip the faucet with "hot" water and try to run the faucets which are furthest way from the water heater so you get the warm flow going through as many pipes as possible in the overnight hours....


Running the hot water faucet won't help the cold water faucet, as it's served by a separate pipe. The Red Cross recommends running the cold faucet.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
448. islander101010
7:51 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
a friend told me he likes to keep the snow all around the house it acts like a blanket in these extreme cold snaps
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
447. Jedkins01
7:48 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 394. Grothar:



Hey. Don't you think we get bored with sunny days and warm tropical breezes?


lol, I know I do if it goes on too long. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather live down here hands down. However, I do like the fall and winter seasonal change, just in a more moderated Florida kind of way. I prefer Central and northern Florida's winters over south Florida because they are still mild but consistently see more cool air events than south Florida. It get cool enough in this part of the state to give you a taste of something different, but also leaves just as fast, and warm weather quickly returns just like taking a vacation.

Plus because it doesn't last long its fun like a storm, and it provides an interesting change and contrast to the jungle foliage and warm weather looking landscape. But then I want my Florida weather back, people up north can keep their endless cloudy cold days below freezing and heaps of ice everywhere that won't melt. Who wants to live in a freezer for a whole season?

The only time it was consistently was very cold in Florida since I've lived here for a whole season was the winter of 2010/2011, that was obnoxiously cold to where I hated it. I think Tampa's January statistics ranked as cold as typical winter in Tennessee.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
446. ricderr
7:46 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
............It seems like you need a new ............keyboard.



ahem....some of us like to use multiple periods...instead of proper punctuation.........
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
445. Drakoen
7:44 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 444. weathermanwannabe:

442. HouGalv08
2:37 PM EST on February 18, 2015


Thanks for that great advice.............It does make more sense than the "drip"; problem is most local Mets and TWC always tell folks to drip the faucets.


............It seems like you need a new ............keyboard.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
444. weathermanwannabe
7:42 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
442. HouGalv08
2:37 PM EST on February 18, 2015


Thanks for that great advice.............It does make more sense than the "drip"; problem is most local Mets and TWC always tell folks to drip the faucets.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
443. sar2401
7:40 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting largeeyes:
I just want to mention that it's in the mid 40s and we have had lots of sunshine here in Berlin. That is all :)
It's 48 here in SE Alabama too. Somehow, Berlin's weather has gotten stuck here. :-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
442. HouGalv08
7:37 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 422. weathermanwannabe:
Here is the big picture headline from NWS for the next few days. Goes without saying with all the hard freeze warnings for parts of the S-SE that folks need to take care of pets, plants, and check on exposed pipes (drip faucets) before turning in tonight. Gonna be lots of busted pipes in the South over the next few days. A "duh" tip; if you do the faucet drip precaution, make sure you drip the faucet with "hot" water and try to run the faucets which are furthest way from the water heater so you get the warm flow going through as many pipes as possible in the overnight hours.



Cold air continues across eastern U.S., records threatened

Exceptionally cold air will dominate the eastern half of the U.S. on Wednesday as an arctic cold front makes its way toward the East Coast. Many records will be threatened as temperatures plummet to as much as 25-30 degrees below normal for this time of year, with highs in the single digits across the Upper Midwest on Wednesday and overnight lows forecast below zero from Bismarck to Buffalo. 

Doesn't make sense. Everybody "dripping" water lowers the water pressure then it stops "dripping", then the pipes freeze because the "dripping" stopped. Not to mention lowering the water pressure for fire fighting. Better idea is to shut the water off to the house and "drain the house".
Sure, it will be "inconvenient" but better than busted pipes. Done so many times here in Houston.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
441. sar2401
7:37 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting weatherbro:


Atlanta is the most de-southernized city in the south imho. A lot of folks from the north(and all over) have moved to the now so-called Dixie City. It's the fastest-growing metropolis in the US. Miami is not far behind. In fact, Miami has an accent very akin to NYC/New England.
Atlanta is number 52 on the list for fastest growing US cities. Miami is number 123. Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Colorado are the states with the fastest growing cities. Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
440. largeeyes
7:36 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
I just want to mention that it's in the mid 40s and we have had lots of sunshine here in Berlin. That is all :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
439. Jedkins01
7:32 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 423. hydrus:

Yep...He has even dedicated entire posts on the subject. I typed numerous comments on it , and many others here have discussed the issue. The models have had there own thread for the better part of a day. I have come to the realization that some do not understand how the models actually work and compute or how Mets apply them to their forecast. Therefore I no longer address the issue.

If for example the types of people who only attack meteorologists for getting a forecast wrong had any clue how the models work or meteorologists apply them, maybe people would have more respect for meteorology and model forecasts.
But of course, it seems that there always some who, even if they had a clue, would still insist they know better. Plus, that would require a lot of hard work and thought, and learning, none of which are usually in the best interest of people who boastfully attack people in a field that is over his/her head.

I'm not expecting people to have a clue how most model forecasts work, it's ok to be ignorant. Ignorant never means stupid. There were many people who have been very smart in ages of the past who were ignorant of what is common knowledge today. We are all ignorant about most things, and wouldn't have the time in a human life span not to anyway. What is stupid is when someone who is knowingly ignorant thinks his/her silly opinion matters more and is more accurate than hard established research and work of experts in a science.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
438. washingtonian115
7:10 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
437. hydrus
7:03 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Quoting 432. ricderr:

Yep...He has even dedicated entire posts on the subject. I typed numerous comments on it , and many others here have discussed the issue. The models have had there own thread for the better part of a day. I have come to the realization that some do not understand how the models actually work and compute or how Mets apply them to there forecast. Therefore I no longer address the issue.


that's because you can channel your "inner peace" better than most.....you are a man to be admired hydrus....




All things are God. Each in there own way at one with all. Inner peace is boundless..It helps one to extract the full promise of their being..:)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
436. Drakoen
7:01 PM GMT on February 18, 2015
Snow bands developing out west. Snowfall rates will be quite high as this system is fairly dynamic.


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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather