marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 225 PM PDT Fri Jun 22 2018
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
A weak dissipating cold front was moving E over the wrn WA/OR waters this afternoon while high pres remains centered W of the CA waters with a ridge extending NE to the or coast. Low pres was over inland areas of nrn CA with a trof extending S across the interior of CA. Models gradually move the trof towards the coast tonight and Sat with intensification over the nrn and central areas. There was a ascat pass at 18z over the wrn WA/OR waters and also over the srn CA waters E of 124w. The strongest winds where data was available was in the srn CA with winds to 20 kt. There was a ship observation over the inner waters of the nrn CA waters at 18z which had 30 kt. Qc history only shows this observation with about plus 10 kt difference from model fields. It appears that this observation is overdone.
Model guidance shows the interior trof that develops and moves towards the coast intensifies over the nrn and central areas of CA tonight into Sat as the high pressure ridge builds in from the W and NW. Will stay with marginal gales for Sat night over the inner waters of nrn CA waters. Area of high pressure weakens by late Sat night into sun with the coastal trof weakening and moving further inland Sun night. A weakening cold front crosses into the WA/OR waters sun with low pressure N of the area. GFS/ECMWF model guidance is similar with the strength and areal coverage of the high pressure that builds in from the W and NW later on Sat and through Wed night with weakening occurring from Tue through Wed night. There is a chance for gales over the inner waters of the nrn CA waters late Mon night into Tue, but with the weakening of the high pressure will stay with 30 kt. As has been the case the last several days will continue to favor the GFS 10m winds throughout the forecast period.
.Seas...Will use the wwiii enp through the forecast period which has decent agreement with the ECMWF wam.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.
.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale Saturday into Saturday night. .Pzz825...Inner waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale Saturday night.
.Forecaster Rowland. Ocean prediction center.