marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 703 PM PDT Fri Oct 19 2018
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
The 00z surface analysis indicated a weakening cold front over the far northwest Washington waters, with trough extending along the California coast to the southern Washington coast. The 18z GFS and NAM indicated no major changes from the previous 12z run. The main focus continues to be early next week as cold front moves into the Washington and Oregon waters with the 18z GFS still indicating a brief period of gales for the outer Washington waters. Another strong cold front will affect the Washington and Oregon waters Wednesday. The 00z sea state analysis indicated observed seas continue to match up well with the enp forecast values, and will also not be making any changes to wave grids.
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High pressure currently centered west of the northern pz6 waters is combining with a low pressure trof along the California coast to produce northerly winds up to 20 knots off the coast of northern California with the strongest conditions west of Point Arena. Winds up to 20 knots or so will continue across the northeastern pz6 and southeastern pz5 waters into Saturday night and then begin to diminish. One cold front will dissipate west of the pz5 waters Friday, while another cold front will cross the area Monday night into Tuesday. Minimal gales are possible across the far northwestern pz5 waters Monday night in the southerly flow ahead of the front. Yet another cold front will then approach the pz5 waters by Wednesday. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF look to be in reasonable agreement across the eastern Pacific through Wednesday night. After Wednesday night the models differ somewhat so will lean more towards the ECMWF which is better supported by the UKMET. For wind grids will use the GFS 10m winds through Wednesday night, then transition to the ECMWF winds. Current warnings look reasonable and few changes should be needed on the next offshore waters forecast.
For wave height grids will also use the wavewatch through Wednesday night, then transition to the ECMWF wam.
Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz900...outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale possible Monday night. Gale possible Wednesday.
.Pz6 California waters... None.
.Forecaster kosier/nolt. Ocean prediction center.