Marine Weather for HS 102

Forecast

marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 611 PM PST Tue Dec 18 2018

.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

High pressure currently centered just west of the southern pz6 waters is combining with a low pressure trof along the coast of Southern California to produce northwest winds up to 25 knots southwest of Point Conception. These conditions will diminish tonight and by Wednesday mainly light winds are expected across the southern pz6 waters. Mainly light winds will then continue across the southern pz6 waters into Friday. Farther north, a low pressure trof will move across the northern pz5 waters tonight with some minimal gales associated with it. Low pressure will then move across the pz5 waters Wednesday night and Thursday with storm force conditions. A cold front will then move into the pz5 waters by late Friday. For wind grids will continue to use the current grids throughout the forecast period. Current warnings look reasonable and few changes should be needed on the next offshore waters forecast.

For wave height grids will also continue to use the current grids throughout the forecast period.

.Extratropical storm surge guidance...The 18z estofs and etss guidance continues to show surge values in excess of 1 ft along the Washington coast by Thursday and this looks reasonable. Consult the latest products from coastal NWS forecast offices for more information.

---------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...

The ascat pass from 18z shows gale winds moving into the western portions of the pz5 waters, while an altimeter pass from 16z indicates seas to 22 ft W of the region. The 12z global models have come into somewhat better agreement today, although some timing differences remain, especially with the system tomorrow and tomorrow night. The overall forecast pattern across the eastern Pacific will remain very progressive as a series of stong lows and associated frontal features affect the waters, most notably the Washington and Oregon waters. Further S, much of teh California waters will be controrred by a high pressure ridge, along with a weak coastal trough. Any cold front pressing se into the waters will weaken as it encounters the ridge axis. The GFS remains the fastest solution concerning the next system to effect the region, although the ECMWF has moved closer to the GFS, while the UKMET continues to lag behind. After Thursday the models come into good agreement through Friday. I will populate the wind grids using the GFS through 12z Wed, then transition to the ECMWF through 12z Fri. From 12z Friday through 12z Saturday I will use the GFS. Due to increased uncertainty I will leave the grids unchanged after 12z Saturday.

Seas...neither the wam or the enp were perfect with the initialization. Parts of the mim area were initialized better with the wam, although in certain areas the wam was too low and the enp was better. I will populate the wave grids using the same blend as with the winds.

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz800...inner waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale Wednesday night into Thursday. Gale possible Thursday night. Gale possible Saturday into Sunday night. .Pzz900...Outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale tonight. Gale Wednesday night. Storm Thursday. Gale possible Thursday night. Gale possible Saturday into Sunday night. .Pzz805...Inner waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale Wednesday night into Thursday. Gale possible Saturday into Sunday night. .Pzz905...Outer waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale Wednesday night. Storm Thursday. Gale possible Saturday into Saturday night. Gale possible Sunday night. .Pzz810...Inner waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale Wednesday night into Thursday. Gale possible Saturday into Saturday night. Gale possible Sunday night. .Pzz910...Outer waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale Wednesday night. Storm Thursday. Gale possible Saturday into Saturday night. Gale possible Sunday night. .Pzz815...Inner waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale Wednesday night into Thursday. Gale possible Saturday night. Gale possible Sunday night. .Pzz915...Outer waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale Wednesday night into Thursday. Gale possible Saturday into Sunday night.

.Pz6 California waters... .pzz920...outer waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale Wednesday night. Gale possible Saturday into Saturday night.

$$

.Forecaster nolt/Shaw. Ocean prediction center.

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