marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 704 PM PST Tue Feb 20 2018
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
Will make some minor changes to the grids based on the most recent guidance. It appears as if some data is making it into the data base, but observations remain slow to update. Some charts are also not making it to the web due to a network outage. The most recent ascat pass from 18z indicates maximum winds are located across the SW Oregon waters 25 kt.
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A bit difficult forecasting today with some technical issues. The ECMWF and UKMET have not come in up to this point. Fortunately, the pattern has been fairly consistent, so will be able to use the 12z NAM and 12z GFS to make a fair representation of the forecast conditions.
All in all, still expect to see high pressure to the west of the waters with a low pressure trough along the coast of California. A series of shortwaves will move se through the northern and central waters over the next several days. Gales can be expected with the shortwave passages; though the extent will likely be limited.
Only limited observations have been available today, so will use the nam12 through 00z Saturday as it provides good consistency with the previous forecast and is in good agreement with the GFS. Prefer the nam12 through this point because it has the best agreement with the current available observed conditions. Beyond 00z Saturday, will use a blend of 66 percent of the official forecast and 33 percent of the 10m GFS.
.Seas...Will use the ww3 through 00z Saturday with some editing, then will use the same blend as the winds for the rest of the forecast.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz900...outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale possible Sunday into Sunday night. .Pzz815...Inner waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale Thursday.
.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale Thursday. Gale possible Thursday night. .Pzz825...Inner waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale possible Thursday night. .Pzz830...Inner waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas... gale possible Thursday night.
.Forecaster Shaw/Sommerville. Ocean prediction center.