marine weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 234 PM EDT Mon may 29 2017
Marine weather discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and tropical North Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w and the southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
...Gulf of Mexico...
Very active convection associated with deep layered troffing lifting slowly across NE Mexico and S Texas continues to produce strong to gale force winds across portion of the NW Gulf this afternoon. Earlier squall line moving E to se now colliding with line of moderate cnvtn across W portions, while garden banks platform just reported 39 kt. Technique that we use to generate weather worked poorly this morning and still trying to catch up with ongoing weather that is likely to continue to shift NE across N central portions into tonight. Veracruz trough has become fairly well organized today with suggestion of low forming and enhanced se flow to the E and se. Thus model wave heights across much of NW and W central portions way too low and still adjusting.
A surface high over the far E Gulf will drift N and meander over the far NE Gulf waters through Fri night with moderate southerly return flow over the waters W of 88w, increasing to fresh breeze each evening, except locally strong se flow forecast just offshore of Veracruz. Expect 3 to 5 ft seas to prevail throughout the period. Model suggesting tightening pressure gradient Wed through end of work week as Atlc ridge builds W and strengthens across regional Atlc waters.
A thermal trough will develop late each afternoon over the Yucatan Peninsula, and shift W across the southwestern Gulf waters, generally to S of 24n between 90w and 93w, during the overnight and early daylight hours, and gradually lose identity along about 94w by late each morning.
...Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w...
Modest Atlc ridge centered over central Atlc extends weakly wwd across area waters to NW Bahamas along about 26n, and is only supporting moderate to fresh E trades across the basin today, with strong trades in climo position of 11n-13n off of Colombia. Seas are generally 5-7 ft except 7-9 ft off of Colombia. Fresh trades are found E of the Antilles where a tropical wave is now crossing 60w, with sal draped across the N of this low lat feature. Recent altimeter data showed seas 7-9 ft entering the waters, while French buoy 41099 showing 7 ft in the coastal waters this morning, all suggesting wave guidance is low 1-2 ft and have bumped up that are in the short term.
Pair of tropical waves moving through the basin today with leading wave along 70w attm has interacted past few days with mid level troffing from central Atlc SW to NE Carib and triggering sct cnvtn. Waves will continue W next few days while nrn extension of wave moving across Mona psg attm will continue WNW across Greater Antilles next 48-60 hrs and then across straits of FL by around 72 hrs. Sfc high will redevelop across W Atlc to the N of the area during this time to tighten pres gradient and freshen winds through the entire week, spreading W to Gulf of Honduras by Wed night.
...SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas...
Weak ridge extend E to W along about 26n today to NW Bahamas where it will meander through Tue, then drift slowly N to along 28n-29n Wed through Thu and along 30n on Fri. Moderate to fresh easterlies are expected S of 23n, except strong along the N coastal waters of Hispaniola during the late afternoon and evenings. Moderate S to SW flow forecast NW of the ridge across the NW waters. As mentioned above, N extension of central Carib tropical wave has begun to shear off and will move WNW across Greater Antilles and adjacent waters of Bahamas next 3 days for scattered light to moderate cnvtn.
.Warnings...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS ii collaboration chat, or by telephone:
.Gulf of Mexico... None.
.Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w... none.
.SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas... None.
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Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National digital forecast database (ndfd) at: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine/grids.Php
For additional information, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine
.Forecaster stripling. National Hurricane Center.