marine weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 208 PM EDT sun Sep 24 2017
Marine weather discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and tropical North Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w and the southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas.
...Gulf of Mexico...
A thermal trough will develop each evening over the NW Yucatan Peninsula, move W-NW across the SW Gulf during the overnight hours and dissipate over the SW Gulf waters by late each morning. Expect the trough to be accompanied by a surge of moderate to locally fresh winds that shift from NE to se along with brief seas to 4 ft through early Tuesday. Expect a tighter pressure gradient on Tuesday evening with a fresh to locally strong wind shift along the trough axis and seas possibly to 5 ft through early Wednesday. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will continue to support gentle to locally moderate anticyclonic flow, and 1-3 ft seas, through early Thursday. An upper-level low is generating scattered showers and tstms across the N waters mainly north of 27n E of 90w. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms. In fact, a recent ascat pass showed some strong winds in association with the tstms. The first cold front of the autumn season is depicted by model guidance to move across the northern and western Gulf waters on Thursday. Currently, it appears that this front will be rather weak as it is expected to be followed by mainly moderate NE winds and seas of 1-3 ft, except for higher seas of 3-5 ft over the far western Gulf waters.
...Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w...
The most recent scatterometer data indicate gentle to locally moderate winds across the basin W of about 70w, and a little tighter E of 70w with moderate to locally fresh E-se winds. Seas are rather low W of 70w where 1-3 ft seas are occurring, and 4-6 ft seas E of 70w. Similar seas are over the tropical N Atlantic zones. Little changes are expected with the current observed through much of Monday. The pressure gradient will then tighten across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic waters later on Monday and through Wednesday morning as central Atlantic high pressure builds southwestward towards the tropical N Atlantic waters and NE Caribbean Sea in the wake of Hurricane Maria exiting the forecast waters of the SW N Atlantic.
Trades are forecast to increase to the 20-25 kt range along with seas building seas to 8-9 ft over parts of the S central Caribbean near the Colombia and Venezuela basins. These increasing trades will spread some westward through late Wednesday morning, and persist across parts of the central Caribbean on Thursday. Winds are also expected to increase to 20-25 kt across the Gulf of Honduras during the evening hours begining on Monday. Seas are forecast to build to 6-7 ft during the period of strongest winds.
Long period northerly swell is expected to reach the waters E of the leeward island on Tuesday, and E of the Windward Islands on Wednesday, with building seas to 7-8 ft.
...SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas...
Hurricane Maria remains NE of the Bahamas, and it is located about 260 nm ENE of Great Abaco Island, Bahamas at 24/1500 UTC, with maximum sustained winds 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt, and a minimum central pressure of 947 mb. Maria is moving N at 8 kt. This general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Monday night. On the forecast track, the core of Maria will be moving well east of the southeast coast of the United States during the day or so. The latest NHC forecast advisory has Maria exiting the forecast region by Monday evening. Scatterometer data highlighted winds of 20-33 kt covering most of the forecast waters N of 23n and NE of the Bahamas. Seas 12 ft or greater are noted N of 24n between 66w- 80w. Buoy 41047 located at 27.5n71.5w is currently reporting S winds of 40 kt along with seas of 29-30 ft. Maria continues to generate mixed swell over just about the entire basin. Seas of 8 ft are noted along the entrances to the Bahamas passages.
Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be increasing along the mid-Atlantic coast later today. Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Otherwise, in the wake of Maria a surface trough will extend from the N-central forecast waters SW to near the central Bahamas through Wednesday night then become diffuse Thursday as central Atlantic high pressure builds westward across the eastern portion of the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible with the trough.
.Warnings...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS ii collaboration chat, or by telephone:
.Gulf of Mexico... None.
.Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w... none.
.SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas... .amz113...Atlantic from 27n to 31n between 70w and 77w... Hurricane Warning today into Mon night. Tropical Storm Warning Tue. .Amz115...Atlantic from 27n to 31n between 65w and 70w... Tropical Storm Warning today into Mon. .Amz119...Atlantic from 22n to 27n E of Bahamas to 70w... Tropical Storm Warning today.
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/abouttafbprod.Shtml#owf
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National digital forecast database (ndfd) at: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine/grids.Php
For additional information, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine
.Forecaster gr. National Hurricane Center.