marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 342 am EDT Sat Jul 22 2017
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
Summary...the 00z NCEP surface analysis shows a stationary front extending NE to SW along the Maine coast, with a low pres trough extending NE over southern New England and into the Gulf of Maine. The analysis also indicates a high pressure ridge over the nt2 waters. Latest available ascat and ascat hi-res passes from a few hours ago show winds to 20 kt in W to SW flow over the central nt2 waters, with 5 to 15 kt winds indicated across the remainder of the offshore waters.
Models...the 00z medium range models are in very good overall agreement across the offshore waters for today into early sun, so the representative 00z GFS 10m solution will be used for the wind grids over this timeframe. There are some timing and trajectory differences among the models regarding several low pres systems that are expected to pass E across the offshore waters near 40n on sun into Mon. In order to resolve these differences, will use a 50/50 blend of the 00z ECMWF/GFS 10m for later sun into Mon. The 00z ecwmf will be used exclusively for late Mon through the rest of the forecast period, because it has had the best run to run consistency of all of the models and also since it has very good support from the latest wpc medium range forecaster guidance.
Seas...the 00z wna wavewatch and 00z ECMWF wam both initialized well over the offshore waters. The models are in good overall agreement for today into Mon with only minor differences noted, so will use a 50/50 blend of the 00z wna wavewatch/ECMWF wam for this timeframe to smooth out the model differences. The 00z ECMWF wam will be used exclusively for the sea height grids for late Mon through Wed night, in order to be consistent with the preferred 00z ECMWF model over this timeframe.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Nt1 New England waters... None.
.Nt2 mid-Atlantic waters... None.
.Forecaster Scovil. Ocean prediction center.